International Competition in the Horn of Africa: Motives, Actors, and Implications for Regional Security and Stability

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the nature of international and regional competition in the Horn of Africa by identifying its main motives, principal actors, and implications for regional security and stability. The significance of the study stems from the region’s geopolitical and economic importance, particularly its strategic location overlooking vital maritime routes, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden, in addition to its considerable natural, mineral, and agricultural resources. The study employs a descriptive-analytical approach to examine the interests and strategies of major international powers, particularly the United States, China, Russia, and France, as well as regional actors such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iran.

The findings indicate that competition in the Horn of Africa is not limited to controlling natural resources, ports, and maritime routes. It also involves expanding political and military influence, combating terrorism, securing trade and energy routes, and strengthening investment networks and regional alliances. The study further finds that external interventions have directly and indirectly contributed to intensifying internal and cross-border conflicts, weakening state institutions, increasing political fragility, and aggravating terrorism, piracy, and arms proliferation. Such competition has also undermined regional cooperation mechanisms and complicated peacebuilding efforts.

The study concludes that regional stability requires strengthening good governance and the rule of law, enhancing the roles of the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, improving the negotiating capacities of the Horn of Africa states, diversifying their international partnerships, and ensuring transparency in investment and financing agreements. These measures would enable regional states to benefit from international competition while protecting their national sovereignty and promoting regional security and sustainable development