Turkish–Egyptian Rivalry and Its Impact on Libyan National Security: A Study of the Determinants of Regional Influence and Its Security Implications

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Turkish–Egyptian regional rivalry on Libyan national security, treating Libya since 2011 as a principal arena for the interaction of competing Turkish and Egyptian interests amid the absence of a unified central authority and a sharp institutional division between eastern and western Libya. Using a descriptive-analytical method supported by a prospective (scenario-based) approach, the study argues that this rivalry has contributed to prolonging and complicating the Libyan crisis through overlapping political, military, and economic instruments, and that the level of stability in Libya is closely tied to the degree of convergence or collision between Turkish and Egyptian interests. The study finds that the shift from direct confrontation to managed competition, which crystallized after the Egyptian–Turkish rapprochement beginning in 2024, offers an opportunity to ease regional polarization in Libya, yet it does not eliminate the structural roots of rivalry over influence in the Eastern Mediterranean — leaving the future of Libyan national security contingent on whether this bilateral understanding evolves into durable arrangements that restore the sovereign agency of the Libyan state.